Kamoa Smelter Produces First Batch of Copper Anodes, LME Copper Surged Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,405.5/mt overnight, dipped to $12,399/mt at the beginning of the session, then the price center gradually moved up, approaching $12,693.5/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $12,673.5/mt, a gain of 3.99%. Trading volume reached 30,300 lots, and open interest reached 342,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2602 opened at 98,520 yuan/mt overnight, rose to 99,470 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 98,260 yuan/mt, after which the price center fluctuated upward and finally closed at 99,220 yuan/mt, a gain of 1.85%. Trading volume reached 100,400 lots, and open interest reached 216,000 lots, characterized by short covering.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On December 30, according to an SMM survey, the Kamoa copper smelter (smelting capacity 500,000 mt) in the DRC successfully produced its first batch of copper anode on local time December 29, 2025.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: SHFE copper opened lower and moved higher during the morning session on December 30, continuing to rise above 98,500 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and the next contract narrowed significantly from the previous day to 80-30 yuan/mt. The import loss for SHFE front-month copper narrowed to around 1,300 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the last trading day of the year coincides with the final day, market trading is expected to remain sluggish, and spot discounts for SHFE copper persist but show signs of narrowing.
(2) Guangdong: On December 30, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 220-150 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 185 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 300-280 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 290 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 97,195 yuan/mt, down 3,475 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 97,090 yuan/mt, down 3,485 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, the sharp drop in copper prices slightly increased downstream purchasing interest, but it remained far below normal levels.
(3) Imported copper: On December 30, warrant prices were $46-56/mt, QP January, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $44-54/mt, QP January, with the average price down $3/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $2-12/mt, QP January, with the average price down $3/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late December and early to mid-January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on December 30, the futures closing price was 98,360 yuan/mt, down 3,370 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -240 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 2,400 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 85,500-85,700 yuan/mt, down 2,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,495 yuan/mt, down 1,730 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,745 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, although secondary copper rod enterprises received many orders due to the significant pullback in copper prices, they were unable to deliver in the short term. Secondary copper rod enterprises expect to resume shipments gradually after the New Year's Day holiday.
Price: On the macro front, the US Fed is open to interest rate cuts but faces significant internal disagreements, coupled with a sharp escalation of geopolitical risks in Yemen due to divisions within the anti-Houthi coalition, leading to increased price volatility in the precious metals market and fluctuating market sentiment. Fundamentally, the market is characterized by weak supply and demand. Supply in the spot market is generally sufficient, but non-registered brand sources are relatively tight, with suppliers actively offloading cargoes. Demand side, performance was weak as the New Year's Day holiday approached. Overall, macro tailwinds are contending with fundamental realities, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate upward and hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]